# Britain's national cyber authority assessed that AI will almost certainly increase the volume of cyber attacks over two years, with the uplift concentrated in reconnaissance and social engineering

Page: https://flyvolo.ai/en/changes/ev-20240124-cybersecurity-analyst-1
Date: 2024-01-24 · Stage: Forecast
Can this record move a task judgement? no
Occupation: https://flyvolo.ai/en/careers/cybersecurity-analyst

## Scope

An intelligence-style assessment using calibrated probability language, not a measurement — 'almost certainly' and 'highly likely' are defined terms on the NCSC's own scale, which the report publishes alongside the judgements. Its relevance to this occupation is indirect but specific: more attacks and more effective social engineering mean a larger and noisier alert queue, which is the most exposed task on this page, so the forecast and the automation point at the same place from opposite directions. The assessment also judges that the near-term uplift comes from evolution of existing techniques rather than novel ones, and that sophisticated uses stay restricted to actors with quality training data, expertise and resources — both of which cut against the most dramatic readings of it.

## Source

- UK National Cyber Security Centre, assessment: the near-term impact of AI on the cyber threat — https://www.ncsc.gov.uk/report/impact-of-ai-on-cyber-threat (primary source)

## What this means

A national technical authority put its name and a date on a two-year judgement, and the horizon has now passed, which is the moment a forecast becomes worth reading. Note where it points: more attacks and more effective social engineering mean a larger and noisier alert queue, and the queue is the task on this page with the clearest automation mechanism aimed at it. The threat and the tooling are converging on the same place.

## What it does not show yet

A forecast is not an observation and this site never lets one move a task's assessment. It is also an assessment about the threat rather than about employment: nothing in it says anything about how many analysts are hired, what they are paid, or whether any organisation changed its staffing. And its own careful sub-judgements — that the near-term uplift is evolution rather than novelty, and that sophisticated use stays with well-resourced actors — are the parts most often dropped when it is quoted.

## How to verify it yourself

Two years have passed since this was written. Check your own alert volume against early 2024 and see whether the direction matches. That is the reckoning this record exists for, and you can do it from your own console.


More: https://flyvolo.ai/llms.txt