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Understanding how automation changes work — task by task, with the evidence shown and the uncertainty admitted.

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You are reading as:I have a jobI am studyingI run a companyI am building something
On this pageWhich technologiesHow it got hereMethod and sources
Occupations›Business systems owner›How we know

Business systems owner — how we know

The page itself gives the judgements. This one gives what they rest on: which technologies bear on the work, how the estimate moved since language models reached the public, and the method behind both.

Assessed
2026-09-11
With evidence
2/5
Verified events
3

Which technologies matter here#

Four separate signals. They are deliberately not added together — a job exposed to two technologies is not twice as exposed.

Process & self-service
Shaping the process inside the systemKeeping the records worth trustingDeciding what the system may decide aloneMaking the numbers mean something
Cognitive automation
Shaping the process inside the systemKeeping the records worth trustingDeciding what the system may decide aloneMaking the numbers mean somethingGetting the team to use it properly

How it got here#

The index is not a static number. This is where it would have sat at each capability checkpoint since ChatGPT — reconstructed, and labelled as such.

Reconstructed · platform inferenceEstimated today for each past checkpoint — not measured at the time. 40 → 52.
1007550250
Since 2 August 2026 the EU AI Act requires that, where a deployer controls the input data of a high-risk system, it must ensure that data is relevant and sufficiently representativeChina's cyberspace regulator reported 868 filed generative AI services and 530 registered applications as of 30 April 2026, and requires every live application to display which filed service it usesCensus BTOS supplement: 16% of AI-using US firms replaced existing software or equipment with AI-integrated solutions123456789not assessed
2022 H22024 H2Now

—— this stretch contains a verified event- - - no event in this stretch — reconstruction only0 = no task exposed, 100 = every task exposed

● 3 verified events for this occupation, plotted at the date it happened — the parts of the line near a marker are anchored to something checkable.

A high start, because the system this job owns is itself the automation of an older way of working — CRMs replaced the filing cabinet and the spreadsheet decades ago, and the role was created to run that replacement. The 2023-2024 step is configuration and reporting becoming things you can ask for in words. It flattens after 2025 for a reason worth noticing: what remains is not technically hard, it is organisationally hard — knowing why a process is shaped the way it is, and which numbers are load-bearing. That knowledge lives in people and in arguments, not in the system, so no amount of capability reaches it.

12022 H240General-purpose text generation reaches the public. Before this point, exposure came from automation that was already deployed — OCR, RPA, machine vision, self-checkout, dispatch algorithms. ChatGPT research preview (2022-11-30) ↗
22023 H142A general model that passes professional exams. First-draft quality crosses the threshold where professional work starts using it. GPT-4 (2023-03-14) ↗
32023 H245Vision input, long context and tool calling. Models can be pointed at documents and connected to systems, which is what moves process work rather than writing work. GPT-4 Turbo:128k 上下文、视觉、工具调用(DevDay) (2023-11-06) ↗
42024 H148The same capability gets much cheaper and faster. Nothing new becomes possible; a lot becomes affordable at volume, which is when deployment decisions change.
52024 H250Reasoning models that work through multi-step problems, and the first models that operate a computer by looking at the screen. The second one is what reaches software-operating jobs. OpenAI o1(推理);同期 Claude 的 computer use 进入公测 (2024-09-12) ↗
62025 H151Agents begin operating real software end to end rather than producing text for a person to paste. This is also when the first public reversals appear — organisations that automated and partly undid it. Claude 3.7 Sonnet 与 Claude Code:混合推理 + 命令行编码代理 (2025-02-24) ↗
72025 H252Long context and tool use become the default rather than a feature. Capability gains continue; the visible constraint shifts from what models can do to liability, procurement and cost. GPT-5(2025-08-07);Claude Opus 4.5(2025-11-24) (2025-08-07) ↗
82026 H152Long-horizon agents land inside specific industry workflows. Adoption becomes sector-specific rather than general. GPT-5.5:「专为实际工作打造」 (2026-04-23) ↗
9Now52The current assessment — this point is the impact index published on the occupation's page, so the curve is anchored to a number the site already stands behind. Worth noting for the flat curves: in the same weeks, a research preview of a shared specification for AI agents to operate physical devices was opened to research labs and manufacturers. That is the first capability class pointed at the physical occupations whose lines here barely move. GPT-6 Astra(2026-09-03);Claude Fable 5.1 / Mythos 5.1(2026-09-01);Model Hardware Standard 研究预览(2026-08-27) (2026-09-03) ↗

A flat line is not a forecast of safety. It says which tasks automation has reached so far — the occupations that moved least here are the ones where the constraint is physical or regulatory, and both of those can change.

Written about this#

These pieces argue from the same records this page holds, and each of their sections names what it rests on.

  • How many jobs has AI actually taken? Every verified number
  • What actually gets automated, and how to tell in advance
  • The jobs AI law already changed before any AI arrived
  • Where AI actually lands in a company, and who holds it

Method and sources#

Assessment date
2026-09-11
Basis of the task judgements
2 evidence-backed · 3 platform inference · 0 not enough evidence
Verified events
3

How we assess an occupation →

← Back to Business systems ownerThe other layer: every task, one by one →