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Understanding how automation changes work — task by task, with the evidence shown and the uncertainty admitted.

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Occupations›Experienced software engineer

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Experienced software engineer

Changes systems they did not write, decides what may go out, and is answerable for how it fails — the part of software work that is mostly judgement about a specific codebase rather than typing.

Software & technologyAssessed 2026-09-12
Tasks automating
0of 6
0 being augmented
Still human-led
4of 6
2 new tasks
Evidence-backed judgements
6of 6
7 verified records
Test this week · first of 4 directions

Take one generated change you approved this month and re-read it looking for what you missed. Write down whether you would still approve it, and why.

See all 4 ↓
46/100
Automation impact indexLow confidence

This is not a probability of losing your job. It combines how much of the role's task load is exposed to automation with how far adoption has actually gone — useful for comparing occupations on one consistent basis, and for nothing else.

Where this applies

Written for engineers with several years in a maintained production codebase — the people who review, design and decide what ships. It cuts by seniority; frontend, backend and data engineering cut by layer and have their own pages, so a senior frontend engineer sits on two and they answer different questions. Entry-level work is assessed separately; dedicated test engineering has its own page. Machine-learning engineering and AI research have their own pages now; site-reliability engineering is real, genuinely different, and not covered here yet — that is a gap, not a judgement that it belongs here.

What is happening

What is actually changing#

The unit of analysis is the task, not the job title. A role is not replaced — its task mix shifts.

AutomatingBeing augmentedStill human-ledNew taskStriped: our inference, not yet backed by a verified record

Each tile is one task. Its size is how much of the job it is; its colour is where the task is heading. Click a tile to see what the judgement does not establish.

Core task
Changing a system you did not write
Still human-led✓ Evidence-backed
What this does NOT mean

One trial, sixteen developers, mature repositories they knew well — the authors say plainly it does not describe most developers or new projects. It says nothing about how the same tools perform a year later, and a slowdown measured once is not a permanent property of the tools.

Read this task in full →
Core task
Reviewing what the machine wrote
New task✓ Evidence-backed
What this does NOT mean

A share of code generated says nothing about how long the reviewing takes, whether it is done well, or whether the total number of engineers changed. Reviewing volume rising is also not automatically good work — it is the part of the job most easily done badly under time pressure.

Read this task in full →
Core task
Designing for how it fails
Still human-led✓ Evidence-backed
What this does NOT mean

This is a judgement about the work, not a measurement. Architecture reviews are rarely published; one government department's engineering standard is an exception that states design responsibility stays with the team, but whether design decisions are handed to a machine elsewhere is mostly not observable from outside the company where it happens.

Read this task in full →
Significant task
Deciding what ships
Still human-led✓ Evidence-backed
What this does NOT mean

One company's account of its own project and one open-source project's rule on accepting contributions; neither shows how release decisions are made at companies generally, or how often things that passed every check still fail.

Read this task in full →
Significant task
Making someone else able to do it
Still human-led✓ Evidence-backed
What this does NOT mean

One open-source project's rule keeps work for newcomers; it says nothing about mentoring inside companies, and nothing here measures whether junior intake is falling or whether more teaching work lands on seniors.

Read this task in full →
Significant task
Owning the agents that write and change code
New task✓ Evidence-backed
What this does NOT mean

One agency's inventory entry and one company's account of its own project; neither shows how common this ownership is, and nothing here says it is a role anyone is paid for yet.

Read this task in full →

Is this your job? Say so and this page narrows to your share of it.

A job title is a bundle of tasks bought together, and no two people hold the same bundle. Nothing is sent anywhere — it stays in this browser.

Changing a system you did not writeStill human-led✓ Evidence-backedReviewing what the machine wroteNew task✓ Evidence-backedDesigning for how it failsStill human-led✓ Evidence-backedDeciding what shipsStill human-led✓ Evidence-backedMaking someone else able to do itStill human-led✓ Evidence-backedOwning the agents that write and change codeNew task✓ Evidence-backed

Read all 6 tasks in full — direction, reasoning and limits →

Recent changes#

20252026today2025-04-15 · DeploymentUS Immigration and Customs Enforcement reported deploying AI developer tools on 15 April 2025, and recorded that their output must be reviewed and approved before it enters the codebase2025-06-23 · Worker adoptionStack Overflow's survey of 49,009 developers finds 84% using or planning to use AI tools, and the most experienced reporting the highest distrust of what it produces2025-07-10 · ConstraintA METR randomised trial of 16 experienced open-source developers on 246 real issues found they took 19% longer with early-2025 AI tools, while believing they had been 20% faster2025-10-24 · ConstraintFedora's council forbids using AI as the sole or final arbiter on a contribution and puts the final accountability for accepting it on a person2026-01-16 · ConstraintLLVM forbids AI tools on issues labelled "good first issue", keeping them as learning opportunities for new contributors2026-03-20 · ConstraintA UK government department's engineering standard says AI cannot replace human responsibility for designs, and requires a person to approve every AI-assisted output before production2026-09-16 · CapabilityGitHub reported that one developer, working with its Copilot agents, moved the Copilot runtime to 832,378 lines of Rust, and that 31.0% of the developer's 2,639 messages went to review, testing and CI
Can move a judgementCannot move one (forecast, capability demo…)
Capability2026-09-16Verified 2026-09-27
GitHub reported that one developer, working with its Copilot agents, moved the Copilot runtime to 832,378 lines of Rust, and that 31.0% of the developer's 2,639 messages went to review, testing and CI

GitHub's own engineering account of moving the runtime behind Copilot CLI and the Copilot SDK from TypeScript to Rust: 832,378 lines of production Rust and 468,689 lines of Rust unit tests, done primarily by a single developer in a few months. Of 2,639 human-authored messages, 31.0% focused on review, testing and CI; 17.4% challenged technical or design decisions; and 15.0% pushed for completeness. Of 1,130,921 tool calls, 61% came from subagents rather than the main session thread — a split between agents, not a share of the work done by agents. The developer kept the destination architecture, which behaviour had to stay identical, how the work was partitioned, ambiguous trade-offs, judging the evidence, manual review of high-risk areas and the final merge decisions. It also describes an agent applying a label that let a schema check pass, which on questioning turned out to hide a regression. One developer, one project, in the vendor's own codebase. Recorded as capability, which on this site never moves an assessment.

A demo, benchmark or paper shows the task can be done. Updates what the technology can do — not what employers will do.

GitHub Blog — Stephen Toub, "Migrating the GitHub Copilot runtime to Rust, using Copilot" (16 September 2026, updated 23 September) ↗Full impact card →
Constraint2026-03-20Verified 2026-09-27
A UK government department's engineering standard says AI cannot replace human responsibility for designs, and requires a person to approve every AI-assisted output before production

An engineering standard binding the Home Office's software teams. It says teams will retain full accountability for all AI-assisted code and outputs because AI tools cannot replace human judgement, understanding, ownership or responsibility for decisions, designs or changes made to systems, that AI-assisted outputs must be reviewed and approved by a human before reaching production, and that teams must be able to assert the security and maintainability of what they run. The firm 'must' applies to review; the sentence on designs states where accountability sits. It is one department's published standard, not a measure of practice elsewhere.

Failure, rollback, regulation or cost is suppressing adoption. Can lower an assessment or widen its uncertainty.

UK Home Office — Engineering Guidance and Standards, SEGAS-00020 "Use AI" (last updated 20 March 2026) ↗Full impact card →
Constraint2026-01-16Verified 2026-10-15
LLVM forbids AI tools on issues labelled "good first issue", keeping them as learning opportunities for new contributors

One large open-source compiler project, binding on its contributors. The policy says AI tools must not be used to fix GitHub issues labelled good first issue, because those issues are generally not urgent and are intended to be learning opportunities for new contributors; it says passing maintainer feedback to an LLM does not help anyone grow, and that reviewing changes from new contributors is part of growing the next generation of contributors. The clause came in with the policy's first version, committed on 16 January 2026; later edits did not change it. It is one project's rule, not an employer's.

Failure, rollback, regulation or cost is suppressing adoption. Can lower an assessment or widen its uncertainty.

LLVM Project — LLVM AI Tool Use Policy (llvm/docs/AIToolPolicy.md; added 16 January 2026) ↗Full impact card →
Constraint2025-10-24Verified 2026-10-15
Fedora's council forbids using AI as the sole or final arbiter on a contribution and puts the final accountability for accepting it on a person

One large Linux distribution, binding on its contributors and reviewers. The policy, whose MUST and MUST NOT carry their standard specification meaning, says you must not use AI as the sole or final arbiter in making a substantive or subjective judgment on a contribution, and that the final accountability for accepting a contribution, even if implemented by an automated system, always rests with the human contributor who authorizes the action. It allows automated checks for objective technical validation. Version 1.0; the page's own line gives its last review as 24 October 2025.

Failure, rollback, regulation or cost is suppressing adoption. Can lower an assessment or widen its uncertainty.

Fedora Project (Fedora Council) — AI-Assisted Contributions Policy, Version 1.0 (last review 2025-10-24) ↗Full impact card →
Constraint2025-07-10Verified 2026-09-12
A METR randomised trial of 16 experienced open-source developers on 246 real issues found they took 19% longer with early-2025 AI tools, while believing they had been 20% faster

Experienced maintainers on large, mature repositories they know well (about 5 years each); tools were mainly Cursor Pro with Claude 3.5/3.7 Sonnet. The authors explicitly do not claim the result generalises to most developers or to greenfield or junior work.

Failure, rollback, regulation or cost is suppressing adoption. Can lower an assessment or widen its uncertainty.

METR — study report ↗Full impact card →
Worker adoption2025-06-23Verified 2026-09-15
Stack Overflow's survey of 49,009 developers finds 84% using or planning to use AI tools, and the most experienced reporting the highest distrust of what it produces

49,009 responses from 177 countries, fielded 29 May to 23 June 2025, and self-selected: respondents were recruited through Stack Overflow's own channels, so this measures the people who answer Stack Overflow, not a random sample of developers. It is recorded against reviewing machine-written code rather than against writing code, because what it measures is the volume driver and the verification response, not who writes what. Both halves belong here: 84% use or plan to use AI tools (76% a year earlier) and 51% of professional developers use them daily, while favourable sentiment fell from over 70% in 2023 and 2024 to 60%, more developers actively distrust the accuracy of AI tools (46%) than trust it (33%), and the most experienced report the lowest rate of high trust at 2.6% against the highest rate of high distrust at 20%. The stake cuts both ways and that is unusual enough to state: Stack Overflow's own traffic is what AI coding assistants displace, so the adoption finding runs against its commercial interest while the falling-trust finding runs with it. The survey does not say what the tools were used for, whether any review took longer, or what any of it changed about shipped code.

Measured, large-scale use of a tool for real work, where the decision to use it was the worker's rather than an employer's. It is more than a capability record — the work is real, not a demo — and less than a deployment record, because no employer put it into production, required it, or built a process around it. Weighted `cautious`: `automating` means the machine can do the task AND there are adoption signs, and this is an adoption sign — but usage can be experimental, and much of the measurement comes from a party with a stake, so one record is never enough and two independent ones are. Note who is counting. Vendor telemetry sees this directly and sells the tool, so such a record names that stake in its scope; a statistics agency asking firms whether their workers use AI in tasks sees the same channel with no stake at all, and that is the better source where it exists.

Stack Overflow 2025 Developer Survey — AI section(平台自己的年度普查) ↗Full impact card →
Deployment2025-04-15Verified 2026-09-20
US Immigration and Customs Enforcement reported deploying AI developer tools on 15 April 2025, and recorded that their output must be reviewed and approved before it enters the codebase

One agency component (ICE) inside one government, reported by that agency under a statutory duty rather than chosen for publication, which is what makes the boring entries in this inventory worth reading. Entry DHS-2758 in the individually-reported CSV. What it establishes is the deployment and the conditions attached to it, not how much the tools are used: the inventory carries no usage figure, no headcount and no productivity claim beyond the agency saying the tools "increase developer productivity". The two clauses that support the two linked tasks are separate sentences in the words of the agency itself: outputs "must be reviewed and approved before being incorporated into the codebase through existing version control and deployment processes" (the reviewing task), and "the tools do not directly modify production systems; all changes must go through standard human review, testing, and approval workflows" (the task of setting what an agent may do unattended). The named tool is a vendor purchase, which is worth knowing though the agency, not the vendor, is the party reporting here. The same inventory carries a counter-signal from the same department: entry DHS-373, "Commercial Generative AI for Code Generation", has a development stage of Retired. That row carries no date and no reason, so it establishes only that DHS listed such a use case and no longer runs it.

An employer has put it into production. Can move the baseline — weighted by scale and how similar the setting is.

OMB — 2025 Federal Agency AI Use Case Inventory (entry DHS-2758) ↗Full impact card →
What it means for you

What this means for you#

If you are starting out

You are not this page yet, and the route to it is the thing under pressure — read the junior page first. What matters most here is that the capability this occupation sells is judgement about one specific system, and that is acquired by being inside one, not by using better tools.

If you are experienced

The measured finding on this page is that the tools did not speed you up on your own codebase, and that you may have believed otherwise. Treat that as a reason to measure your own work rather than as reassurance: the trial is small and a year old, and the part of the job that is growing is not typing — it is reviewing what arrives, and answering for what an agent was allowed to do.

Your options#

Four directions, each with its real constraints and one thing you can test this week. Continuing as you are is a legitimate choice — it just has to be a chosen one.

Stay and strengthen

Become the person who is trusted to say no

As generated changes multiply, the constraint moves to whoever can refuse one with a reason that holds. That authority is earned by being right in public, repeatedly, about a specific system.

Real constraints

Requires staying in one codebase long enough to be right about it, which cuts against moving for a raise every eighteen months.

Test this week

Take one generated change you approved this month and re-read it looking for what you missed. Write down whether you would still approve it, and why.

Reshape the role

Take ownership of what the agents may do

Somebody has to decide what an automated change is allowed to touch and where it enters. In most teams nobody has been given that, which is why it shows up in incident write-ups rather than job descriptions.

Real constraints

It is accountability without a title, at least for now. Take it deliberately and in writing, or it will be assigned to you the first time something breaks.

Test this week

Write one page on what automated changes may currently do in your repository without a human in the path. Circulate it and see who disagrees about what is already permitted.

Adjacent move

Move to where correctness is expensive by law

Payments, safety-critical systems, regulated data — places where an unattended change is not permitted, so the reviewing and the accountability are funded rather than assumed.

Real constraints

Slower work, more process, and the depth takes years. It is a different kind of engineering, not the same engineering in a safer room.

Test this week

Find one regulated requirement that applies to a system near you and read what it actually forbids. Most engineers have never read one directly.

Cross-industry

Move to the side of the problem

Solutions engineering, technical product, developer experience — roles where the value is understanding both a system and what someone needs from it, and where the writing was never the scarce part.

Real constraints

Requires treating communication as a first-class skill, and accepting that you will stop being the person who knows the code best.

Test this week

Sit with someone using a system you built and say nothing for twenty minutes. Write down every place they hesitated.

Common questions#

Do AI coding tools actually make experienced engineers faster?

The one randomised trial this site holds found the opposite, and the detail worth carrying is the gap between measurement and perception: sixteen experienced open-source maintainers working on real issues in repositories they knew took 19% longer with 2025-era tools, while estimating they had been 20% faster. The authors do not claim this describes most developers or new projects, and it is a year old. What it does establish is that the speed-up is not automatic on a mature codebase, and that asking yourself does not settle it.

How long do I have?

Nobody can answer that with a number, and the confident answers on both sides are selling something. A more useful question is which part of the job, because the parts are moving at different speeds: writing routine code is already largely done by machine, reviewing what it produced has grown into a job of its own, and deciding what ships with a known risk has not moved because it is accountability rather than capability. Watch a signal you can check yourself instead — how much of your week is now reading code you did not write.

If juniors are being cut, is being senior safer?

It is differently exposed, not safer, and the two are connected. A profession that stops making seniors has a supply problem later, not a safety guarantee now: if fewer people arrive at the bottom, the teaching that used to be spread across a team lands on fewer people. Some engineering communities now protect that path on purpose — LLVM forbids AI tools on issues labelled good first issue so that new contributors can learn on them.

Should I specialise in frontend, backend or machine learning?

Nobody can answer that from evidence yet, and saying so is more useful than guessing. Those three have genuinely different exposure, but the studies that exist were designed to compare experience levels rather than stacks, so there is nothing to separate them with. Treat any confident ranking of frontend against backend as someone's impression. What the evidence does support is choosing by how expensive being wrong is in your domain, which cuts across all three.

What is the one thing worth getting good at now?

Reviewing code you did not write, and being able to say why you rejected something. That skill was always present in the job and was never the thing anyone was hired or assessed on; it is now the bottleneck, because generation moved the work from producing to judging. It is also the capability that makes you the person who can be trusted to say no, which is the part of this job with no substitute in sight.

How we know

What these judgements rest on#

6 of 6 task judgements on this page are backed by a verified event and 0 are platform inference, each labelled where it appears. Behind them sit 2 technology dimensions, a reconstructed trajectory since language models reached the public, and 7 verified events.

See which technologies, how it got here, and the method →

Where it sits in the official classification: skills, knowledge, related jobs →

Other roles in the same function#

A company divides its work into functions before it divides it into jobs. These sit in Technology & data alongside this one — a fact about org charts, not a judgement that they are similar or that they are changing in the same direction.

Junior software developer · Frontend developer · Backend developer · Data engineer · Machine learning engineer · AI researcher · Software tester / QA engineer · Data analyst · Data scientist · Statistician · Economist · Business analyst · Business systems owner · IT support specialist / helpdesk · Security analyst (SOC) · DevOps engineer / platform engineer / SRE · Network engineer · Technical writer / documentation engineer · Grant writer / grants officer