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Understanding how automation changes work — task by task, with the evidence shown and the uncertainty admitted.

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On this pageWhich technologiesHow it got hereMethod and sources
Occupations›Data engineer›How we know

Data engineer — how we know

The page itself gives the judgements. This one gives what they rest on: which technologies bear on the work, how the estimate moved since language models reached the public, and the method behind both.

Assessed
2026-09-12
With evidence
4/6
Verified events
3

Which technologies matter here#

Four separate signals. They are deliberately not added together — a job exposed to two technologies is not twice as exposed.

Cognitive automation
Building the pipelineWhen the data is wrong and nothing erroredOwning what a number meansWhat it costs to keep askingFeeding the systems that answer in sentences
Process & self-service
Building the pipelineWhat must be kept, deleted, or never collected

How it got here#

The index is not a static number. This is where it would have sat at each capability checkpoint since ChatGPT — reconstructed, and labelled as such.

Reconstructed · platform inferenceEstimated today for each past checkpoint — not measured at the time. 32 → 50.
1007550250
Thirty-five of forty-five US federal agencies reported running a knowledge retrieval system over their own agency informationThe US commodities regulator reported in the federal AI inventory that it runs an isolation-forest model daily to flag potentially erroneous data loadsOn 632 enterprise data workflows drawn from real warehouses, a code agent solved 21.3% — against 91.2% on the academic version of the same task123456789not assessed
2022 H22024 H2Now

—— this stretch contains a verified event- - - no event in this stretch — reconstruction only0 = no task exposed, 100 = every task exposed

● 3 verified events for this occupation, plotted at the date it happened — the parts of the line near a marker are anchored to something checkable.

The highest starting point of the three engineering layers, because this work was already being commoditised before generative tools existed — bought connectors and managed warehouses had been eating the building half for years. The middle rise is transformation code becoming cheap to draft and natural-language querying arriving. It flattens earliest and stops rising at all after 2025, and the reason is on the page: cheap querying makes definitions more load-bearing, not less. The one benchmark we hold that was built from real corporate warehouses scores a plain model at zero where public benchmarks read 80 to 90 — the gap is meaning, and meaning lives in people.

12022 H232General-purpose text generation reaches the public. Before this point, exposure came from automation that was already deployed — OCR, RPA, machine vision, self-checkout, dispatch algorithms. ChatGPT research preview (2022-11-30) ↗
22023 H134A general model that passes professional exams. First-draft quality crosses the threshold where professional work starts using it. GPT-4 (2023-03-14) ↗
32023 H238Vision input, long context and tool calling. Models can be pointed at documents and connected to systems, which is what moves process work rather than writing work. GPT-4 Turbo:128k 上下文、视觉、工具调用(DevDay) (2023-11-06) ↗
42024 H143The same capability gets much cheaper and faster. Nothing new becomes possible; a lot becomes affordable at volume, which is when deployment decisions change.
52024 H246Reasoning models that work through multi-step problems, and the first models that operate a computer by looking at the screen. The second one is what reaches software-operating jobs. OpenAI o1(推理);同期 Claude 的 computer use 进入公测 (2024-09-12) ↗
62025 H148Agents begin operating real software end to end rather than producing text for a person to paste. This is also when the first public reversals appear — organisations that automated and partly undid it. Claude 3.7 Sonnet 与 Claude Code:混合推理 + 命令行编码代理 (2025-02-24) ↗
72025 H250Long context and tool use become the default rather than a feature. Capability gains continue; the visible constraint shifts from what models can do to liability, procurement and cost. GPT-5(2025-08-07);Claude Opus 4.5(2025-11-24) (2025-08-07) ↗
82026 H150Long-horizon agents land inside specific industry workflows. Adoption becomes sector-specific rather than general. GPT-5.5:「专为实际工作打造」 (2026-04-23) ↗
9Now50The current assessment — this point is the impact index published on the occupation's page, so the curve is anchored to a number the site already stands behind. Worth noting for the flat curves: in the same weeks, a research preview of a shared specification for AI agents to operate physical devices was opened to research labs and manufacturers. That is the first capability class pointed at the physical occupations whose lines here barely move. GPT-6 Astra(2026-09-03);Claude Fable 5.1 / Mythos 5.1(2026-09-01);Model Hardware Standard 研究预览(2026-08-27) (2026-09-03) ↗

A flat line is not a forecast of safety. It says which tasks automation has reached so far — the occupations that moved least here are the ones where the constraint is physical or regulatory, and both of those can change.

Written about this#

These pieces argue from the same records this page holds, and each of their sections names what it rests on.

  • What actually gets automated, and how to tell in advance

Method and sources#

Assessment date
2026-09-12
Basis of the task judgements
4 evidence-backed · 2 platform inference · 0 not enough evidence
Verified events
3

How we assess an occupation →

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