LO
Product manager — how we know
The page itself gives the judgements. This one gives what they rest on: which technologies bear on the work, how the estimate moved since language models reached the public, and the method behind both.
Which technologies matter here#
Four separate signals. They are deliberately not added together — a job exposed to two technologies is not twice as exposed.
How it got here#
The index is not a static number. This is where it would have sat at each capability checkpoint since ChatGPT — reconstructed, and labelled as such.
—— this stretch contains a verified event- - - no event in this stretch — reconstruction only0 = no task exposed, 100 = every task exposed
● 2 verified events for this occupation, plotted at the date it happened — the parts of the line near a marker are anchored to something checkable.
A low start: before 2022 the documents were written by hand and there was no cheap way to shorten them. The climb through 2024 is generation handling the role's most visible output — specs, tickets, decks — convincingly. It stops rising in 2025 and the flattening carries the page's argument: cheap building makes the deciding more consequential, not less, because a team that can ship five things in the time it used to ship one pays five times over for choosing the wrong five. What remains is refusal, coordination without authority, and being answerable for a bet. Note the honest caveat in the shape: where an organisation has stripped the decision out of the role, the job really is the documents, and that version sits much closer to the automating half.
A flat line is not a forecast of safety. It says which tasks automation has reached so far — the occupations that moved least here are the ones where the constraint is physical or regulatory, and both of those can change.
Written about this#
These pieces argue from the same records this page holds, and each of their sections names what it rests on.
Method and sources#
- Assessment date
- 2026-09-12
- Basis of the task judgements
- 2 evidence-backed · 4 platform inference · 0 not enough evidence
- Verified events
- 2