LO
Experienced software engineer — how we know
The page itself gives the judgements. This one gives what they rest on: which technologies bear on the work, how the estimate moved since language models reached the public, and the method behind both.
Which technologies matter here#
Four separate signals. They are deliberately not added together — a job exposed to two technologies is not twice as exposed.
How it got here#
The index is not a static number. This is where it would have sat at each capability checkpoint since ChatGPT — reconstructed, and labelled as such.
—— this stretch contains a verified event- - - no event in this stretch — reconstruction only0 = no task exposed, 100 = every task exposed
● 3 verified events for this occupation, plotted at the date it happened — the parts of the line near a marker are anchored to something checkable.
A higher baseline than most pages here, because code completion and refactoring tools were already ordinary before 2022 — this occupation started the period partly automated and knew it. The 2023-2025 climb is generation reaching the point where a whole change can be drafted rather than a line completed. It flattens early and low compared with the junior curve, and the flattening is the interesting part: the remaining tasks are judgement about one specific system and accountability for what goes out, neither of which a more capable model reaches. Read the gap between this line and the junior one as the shape of the problem rather than as reassurance — the same forces that hold this curve down are the ones pushing that one up, and they are connected by the route between them.
A flat line is not a forecast of safety. It says which tasks automation has reached so far — the occupations that moved least here are the ones where the constraint is physical or regulatory, and both of those can change.
Written about this#
These pieces argue from the same records this page holds, and each of their sections names what it rests on.
Method and sources#
- Assessment date
- 2026-09-12
- Basis of the task judgements
- 3 evidence-backed · 3 platform inference · 0 not enough evidence
- Verified events
- 3