LO
Metro train driver — how we know
The page itself gives the judgements. This one gives what they rest on: which technologies bear on the work, how the estimate moved since language models reached the public, and the method behind both.
Which technologies matter here#
Four separate signals. They are deliberately not added together — a job exposed to two technologies is not twice as exposed.
How it got here#
The index is not a static number. This is where it would have sat at each capability checkpoint since ChatGPT — reconstructed, and labelled as such.
—— this stretch contains a verified event- - - no event in this stretch — reconstruction only0 = no task exposed, 100 = every task exposed
● 3 verified events for this occupation, plotted at the date it happened — the parts of the line near a marker are anchored to something checkable.
The highest start and the flattest line on this site, and both are the point. Fully automated metro lines have existed since 1981 and sixty urban areas had at least one before this chart begins, so almost everything this curve measures had already happened — none of it built on language models, because the control problem here is closed rather than intelligent. The single visible step is 2024, when commercial service began on a line with level crossings and no platform doors, widening where this can go rather than deepening what it does. It flattens after that for a reason no capability release will change: what gates the spread is civil works, sealed track and screen doors paid for over a decade, not software bought in a quarter. Read the level as the share of the task set a machine already holds, and read the flatness as the cost of concrete.
A flat line is not a forecast of safety. It says which tasks automation has reached so far — the occupations that moved least here are the ones where the constraint is physical or regulatory, and both of those can change.
Method and sources#
- Assessment date
- 2026-09-21
- Basis of the task judgements
- 3 evidence-backed · 3 platform inference · 0 not enough evidence
- Verified events
- 3