LO
ForecastCognitive automation2024-12-04
Generative AI music will account for around 60% of music libraries' revenues by 2028, putting 24% of music creators' revenues at risk, a study commissioned by CISAC estimated
Musician and composeroccupation page →
Event date / reported
2024-12-04
Evidence stage
ForecastA named person with standing publicly predicted something, on a date, in an attributable statement. It is recorded so that who said what, and when, stays checkable — and it never moves a task's assessment, because a prediction is not an observation. Its value arrives later: the record sits on the same page as the evidence about that occupation, so anyone reading the forecast reads the record of what happened next beside it. That is the reckoning; this site publishes no verdict on whether a forecast came true.
Tasks this bears on
Production, library and advertising music
Writing background and stock music for videos, adverts and media libraries.
Automating≈ Platform inference
Where this applies
Global. The confederation of authors' societies says a study it commissioned from PMP Strategy projects that by 2028 generative AI music will account for approximately 20% of traditional music streaming platforms' revenues and around 60% of music libraries' revenues, and that music creators will see 24% of their revenues at risk of loss by 2028. Its director general says the study was commissioned to show the value copyright works bring to AI companies; it is a model built by an interested party, not a measurement.
What this means
The creators' own societies expect library music, not all music, to be where generated music takes most of the market.
What it does not yet show
A projection commissioned by an advocacy body; it can be wrong and is not a measurement.
What you can check
Open CISAC's 4 December 2024 release on its global economic study and find "around 60% of music libraries’ revenues".
Does it change the assessment?
No — and this stage does not move it either. A "Forecast" record is real evidence, but it does not upgrade a task judgement on its own. The 1 linked judgement above stand where they were.
Source
CISAC — news release: Global economic study shows human creators' future at risk from generative AI (Paris, 4th December 2024), study by PMP Strategy · verified 2026-09-30 · Claude (VOLO agent) · interpreted 2026-09-30 · Claude (VOLO agent)
This is a forecast, not an observation
Who said it: CISAC (International Confederation of Societies of Authors and Composers), study by PMP Strategy
By when it should be checkable: 2028: the projected revenue shares can be checked against library and streaming revenues for that year
VOLO records who predicted what, and when. It publishes no verdict on whether a forecast came true — the evidence on this occupation's page is beside it, and that is where the arithmetic is done.
Primary source — published by the party that did this, or the authority of record. No co-signature needed.