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Understanding how automation changes work — task by task, with the evidence shown and the uncertainty admitted.

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On this pageWhich technologiesHow it got hereMethod and sources
Occupations›Quantitative analyst›How we know

Quantitative analyst — how we know

The page itself gives the judgements. This one gives what they rest on: which technologies bear on the work, how the estimate moved since language models reached the public, and the method behind both.

Assessed
2026-09-30
With evidence
5/5
Verified events
10

Which technologies matter here#

Four separate signals. They are deliberately not added together — a job exposed to two technologies is not twice as exposed.

Cognitive automation
Signal research and strategy designBacktesting and quantitative codePricing and risk modelsModel validation and challengeDeploying strategies and answering for them
Process & self-service
Deploying strategies and answering for them

How it got here#

The index is not a static number. This is where it would have sat at each capability checkpoint since ChatGPT — reconstructed, and labelled as such.

Reconstructed · platform inferenceEstimated today for each past checkpoint — not measured at the time. 34 → 48.
1007550250
Internal validation should effectively challenge the modelling decisions on machine-learning models, and firms should stop material changes being implemented automatically, the ECB's guide expectsOn BacktestBench, the best of 23 language models reached 67.41% overall accuracy, and volatility and Sharpe ratio remained 'disaster zones' for all of themTop models produced valid trading-system code more than 91.7% of the time on SysTradeBench, while its authors concluded human oversight remains essentialMan Group says its AlphaGPT writes production-grade research code and has produced signals that pass the same thresholds as human research, under dual-track validationAn agent framework reached up to twice the annualised returns of classical factor libraries in backtests while using 70% fewer factorsWhere AI techniques are deployed at trading firms and systematic funds, they are largely rules-based systems with a human in the loop, the Bank of England's FPC foundUK banks' model validation should be independent of model development and done by staff with the requisite technical expertise, the Prudential Regulation Authority expectsFour large proprietary traders told the Dutch markets regulator that 80% to 100% of their algorithms for liquid instruments rely on machine learning123456789not assessed
2022 H22024 H2Now

—— this stretch contains a verified event- - - no event in this stretch — reconstruction only0 = no task exposed, 100 = every task exposed

● 8 verified events for this occupation, plotted at the date it happened — the parts of the line near a marker are anchored to something checkable.

Starts at 34 because machine learning and automated backtesting were already inside many trading firms' research before this chart begins. It rises as language-model agents begin writing research code and proposing signals that firms test like human work, and stays in the middle because models still miscompute core risk metrics and rules in the US, EU and UK keep design, authorisation and validation with named people.

12022 H234General-purpose text generation reaches the public. Before this point, exposure came from automation that was already deployed — OCR, RPA, machine vision, self-checkout, dispatch algorithms. ChatGPT research preview (2022-11-30) ↗
22023 H136A general model that passes professional exams. First-draft quality crosses the threshold where professional work starts using it. GPT-4 (2023-03-14) ↗
32023 H238Vision input, long context and tool calling. Models can be pointed at documents and connected to systems, which is what moves process work rather than writing work. GPT-4 Turbo:128k 上下文、视觉、工具调用(DevDay) (2023-11-06) ↗
42024 H140The same capability gets much cheaper and faster. Nothing new becomes possible; a lot becomes affordable at volume, which is when deployment decisions change.
52024 H242Reasoning models that work through multi-step problems, and the first models that operate a computer by looking at the screen. The second one is what reaches software-operating jobs. OpenAI o1(推理);同期 Claude 的 computer use 进入公测 (2024-09-12) ↗
62025 H144Agents begin operating real software end to end rather than producing text for a person to paste. This is also when the first public reversals appear — organisations that automated and partly undid it. Claude 3.7 Sonnet 与 Claude Code:混合推理 + 命令行编码代理 (2025-02-24) ↗
72025 H245Long context and tool use become the default rather than a feature. Capability gains continue; the visible constraint shifts from what models can do to liability, procurement and cost. GPT-5(2025-08-07);Claude Opus 4.5(2025-11-24) (2025-08-07) ↗
82026 H147Long-horizon agents land inside specific industry workflows. Adoption becomes sector-specific rather than general. GPT-5.5:「专为实际工作打造」 (2026-04-23) ↗
9Now48The current assessment — this point is the impact index published on the occupation's page, so the curve is anchored to a number the site already stands behind. Worth noting for the flat curves: in the same weeks, a research preview of a shared specification for AI agents to operate physical devices was opened to research labs and manufacturers. That is the first capability class pointed at the physical occupations whose lines here barely move. GPT-6 Astra(2026-09-03);Claude Fable 5.1 / Mythos 5.1(2026-09-01);Model Hardware Standard 研究预览(2026-08-27) (2026-09-03) ↗

A flat line is not a forecast of safety. It says which tasks automation has reached so far — the occupations that moved least here are the ones where the constraint is physical or regulatory, and both of those can change.

Written about this#

These pieces argue from the same records this page holds, and each of their sections names what it rests on.

  • AI in skilled jobs: what it does now, and who still signs

Method and sources#

Assessment date
2026-09-30
Basis of the task judgements
5 evidence-backed · 0 platform inference · 0 not enough evidence
Verified events
10

How we assess an occupation →

← Back to Quantitative analystThe other layer: every task, one by one →Skills, knowledge and related jobs (O*NET) →