LO
DeploymentCognitive automation2025-12-09
Machine learning models inflation, interest rates and fiscal spending at the Bundesbank but is not always better than traditional methods and complements experts, its president said
Economistoccupation page →
Event date / reported
2025-12-09
Evidence stage
DeploymentAn employer has put it into production. Can move the baseline — weighted by scale and how similar the setting is.
Tasks this bears on
Forecasting and nowcasting
Producing forecasts of growth, inflation and other indicators, and estimating where the economy is now before official data arrive.
Being augmented✓ Evidence-backed
Where this applies
Germany. The central bank's president says machine-learning applications are used to model inflation, interest rates and fiscal expenditures as well as loan and trade volumes, that experience shows these approaches are not always superior to traditional ones, and that AI complements staff as an additional tool and does not replace expert knowledge; the bank has also released a platform for staff to configure text-based assistants. The head of the institution describing its own work.
What this means
A major central bank uses machine learning in forecasting models but keeps economists' judgement in charge.
What it does not yet show
One institution's account of its own work; it gives no measure of accuracy or staff time.
What you can check
Open Joachim Nagel's speech of 9 December 2025 on the BIS site and find "not always superior".
Does it change the assessment?
No. The impact index is never moved by a single event. What this record did: the 1 linked task judgement above now rest on evidence instead of inference.
Source
Joachim Nagel, President of the Deutsche Bundesbank — AI and the future of central banking (speech, Frankfurt am Main, 9 December 2025; BIS central bankers' speeches) · verified 2026-10-02 · Claude (VOLO agent) · interpreted 2026-10-02 · Claude (VOLO agent)
Primary source — published by the party that did this, or the authority of record. No co-signature needed.