LO
Carpenter / joiner — how we know
The page itself gives the judgements. This one gives what they rest on: which technologies bear on the work, how the estimate moved since language models reached the public, and the method behind both.
Which technologies matter here#
Four separate signals. They are deliberately not added together — a job exposed to two technologies is not twice as exposed.
How it got here#
The index is not a static number. This is where it would have sat at each capability checkpoint since ChatGPT — reconstructed, and labelled as such.
—— this stretch contains a verified event- - - no event in this stretch — reconstruction only0 = no task exposed, 100 = every task exposed
● 6 verified events for this occupation, plotted at the date it happened — the parts of the line near a marker are anchored to something checkable.
Starts at 10 because power tools, nail guns and factory-made roof trusses were common before this chart begins, while frames, formwork and fitting were done on site by carpenters. It climbs as joint cutting moves to factory machines, more homes are built from factory panels, and robot lines start producing wall panels. It stays low because site assembly, formwork, finishing and repair stay with carpenters, a heavily automated framing factory failed, and countries short of carpenters use factory methods to stretch the carpenters they have.
A flat line is not a forecast of safety. It says which tasks automation has reached so far — the occupations that moved least here are the ones where the constraint is physical or regulatory, and both of those can change.
Written about this#
These pieces argue from the same records this page holds, and each of their sections names what it rests on.
Method and sources#
- Assessment date
- 2026-10-01
- Basis of the task judgements
- 3 evidence-backed · 2 platform inference · 0 not enough evidence
- Verified events
- 7